Here, we reconstruct the long-term population dynamics of southern California Paralabrax, in the face of a changing ocean. Collectively, our results pave the way for an ecosystem approach to the management of this fishery and bring us closer to readying the fishery for climate change.

This research was supported by a grant awarded by the California Ocean Protection Council (Proposition 84 Competitive Grant Program, Project R/OPCSFAQ-09) and administered by the California Sea Grant College Program. The following synopsis is taken from our manuscript, which is currently in preparation for publication submission.

Environmentally-driven trends in fish larval abundance predict fishery recruitment in two temperate reef congeners: mechanisms and implications for management

Erica T. Jarvis Mason^1,2, Andrew R. Thompson², Brice X. Semmens¹

¹Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, California, USA
²2Fisheries Resources Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, California, USA

Abstract

Environmental and biological processes acting on fish larvae were long thought to drive fishery cohort strength, but predictive ability oftentimes fell short and larval abundance is now considered to be more useful as a proxy for spawning stock biomass. In the face of a changing ocean, studies relating environmental covariates and larval abundance and fishery recruitment are still worthy of continued research, especially in data-limited contexts. Here we focus on a decades-long popular recreational-only multispecies fishery whose population status and recovery potential are uncertain. We leveraged 54 years of ichthyoplankton data (1963-2016) and a powerful species distribution modeling framework to 1) reconstruct species-specific standardized indices of larval abundance and 2) to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in their population dynamics relative to environmental variables. Importantly, we tested bass larval abundance as a useful indicator of adult stock status and predictor of future fishery recruitment. Contrary to expectation, species-specific larval abundance predicted future catch across multiple catch data sets. Strong relationships between environmental variables and larval abundance demonstrate additional considerations in predicting future fishery recruitment and population status. Our findings paint a path forward for improving estimates of current and future fishery status under changing natural and anthropogenic influences and the incorporation of ecosystem considerations into fishery management.